Business Climate: How sea level rise could sink B.C.’s waterfront real estate

Whenever oceanfront properties go up for sale, realtors are quick to point out the serene views, the opportunities for recreation and the cachet that comes with owning a prized piece of B.C. real estate.

But those pitches may need to shift as the effects of sea level rise slowly take hold, in what Simon Fraser University earth sciences professor John Clague calls “a potential disaster in slow motion.”

As yet, most property owners haven’t experienced significant effects of sea level rise. But as the warming ocean expands and storms worsen, municipalities including Vancouver, Richmond, North Vancouver and others are bracing for a half-metre sea level rise by 2050, and a metre by 2100—if not sooner.

A City of Vancouver interactive map shows that, without adaptation measures, Granville Island, Kits Beach, Jericho Beach and the outer bands of Coal Harbour, the West End, the Downtown Eastside and Stanley Park, as well as many areas along the Fraser River, could all be underwater. The same is predicted for parts of Victoria, the Gulf Islands, the Sunshine Coast and other top destinations.

The hazards aren’t only physical; they’re also financial. A 2023 report by the BC Financial Services Authority—which regulates financial services including real estate providers—warns that climate impacts could lead to a decrease in property values, an increase in the number of properties considered at risk, higher construction costs and restricted insurance coverage, which would put further downward pressure on prices.

The BCFSA also reports that a lack of province-wide flood mapping, uncertainty around the timing and severity of the impending changes and the unavailability of building damage estimates add challenges for the real estate industry.

So far, people in B.C. are mostly seeing the effects of sea level rise when there are storms combined with king tides, says Clague, but that’s beginning to change. He predicts that in the next 20 years the impacts will be noticeable, and within the next century “our building stock is going to be totally transformed, and probably our relationship to the shoreline too.”

Unlike small coastal communities that can move to higher ground, densely populated urban areas will be forced to adapt, he adds, and infrastructure from rail lines to essential port structures could be put at risk. “There’s so much infrastructure that’s critical to Canada on the Fraser Delta,” he says. “The aggregate wealth that you’re protecting is in the trillions of dollars.”

The District of North Vancouver estimates that a one-metre rise in sea level combined with a single moderate storm could lead to a staggering $900 million in damage.

According to Jason Ho, manager of engineering planning for the City of Richmond, the municipality—which is, on average, just one metre above sea level—has been planning for sea level rise for two decades, and currently has 49 kilometres of dikes, 39 drainage pump stations and over 800 kilometres of drainage, culverts and watercourses. The city is also working to raise and widen dikes to accommodate a 1.2-metre rise in sea level, and upgrade the drainage network.

So far the city hasn’t had to acquire much private land to accommodate the wider dikes and other mitigation measures, but Ho expects that will soon change and significantly add to upgrade costs. At the same time, Richmond is sinking by roughly two millimetres per year, so when properties are redeveloped or roads reconstructed, they are raised to the city’s flood construction level.

The greatest challenge, he says, is footing the hefty bills. “One of the things we’re pushing senior governments to do is establish a dedicated source of funding for municipalities,” he says, “because no municipality is able to tackle this on its own.”

Mark Sakai, advocacy projects manager with the BC Real Estate Association, says that because the risk of rising tides isn’t yet tangible, people are mostly ignoring the issue. But that won’t be an option for much longer.

“There’s a really interesting shift that will likely happen in the coming decades as people start to realize there are more and more risks to specific properties that have traditionally been very attractive and highly valued,” says Sakai, who expects property values to be pushed down when owners can’t get insurance, or when they need to pay large sums for mitigation.

Realtors will also need to educate clients about the climate risks in their areas, he adds. They will need to advise their clients “on what type of impacts those risks have on the current purchase price and the potential future selling price, and what changes they may have to make to the property to harden it against risk,” says Sakai. “You want people to be able to make those decisions with open eyes.”

Some condo buildings are already seeing the effects of saltwater intrusion, says Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium Home Owners Association of BC. It can also be devastating to electrical systems, which can in turn cut power to pumps if the water is able to make its way in. Gioventu strongly recommends that condo owners and managers check their insurance policies—and get the details in writing—and regularly inspect and maintain their sump pump and water detection systems.

He also feels that every new piece of housing legislation should include measures that address climate change and rising water levels. “We need to consciously step back and apply that lens as we introduce new legislation,” he says, “because it is going to be a prevalent issue.”

It’s hard to tell exactly what is going to happen or when, says Clague. Some models show the effects of climate change accelerating, so the one-metre rise might well arrive before 2100. Improving dikes and other mitigation measures is essential, he says, but unless significant steps are taken to reduce climate change, it will only be a matter of time before even those fixes aren’t enough. He believes governments need to take even stronger action, and fast, before the tide rolls in.

“It will get worse and worse, and the public will be screaming to do something,” says Clague. “These solutions take time and money, and the resources have to be invested incrementally. You’re not going to find $10 billion overnight. New capital infrastructure on a large scale—new water and sewer lines—takes years, and this is an even bigger problem. If we don’t do anything we’re going to be in trouble.”